El Niño Alert: Kenya Braces for Potentially Strong Climate Event as Met Service Prepares National Outlook

By Jeff Kizzilah Digital Editor 

The Kenya Meteorological Service has raised concerns over the possibility of a strong El Niño phenomenon, as experts convene the 13th National Climate Outlook Forum to assess emerging weather patterns and their potential impact across the country.

Acting Director of Meteorological Services Edward Maina Muriuki said the forum brings together meteorologists, scientists and representatives from key sectors to analyse the expected weather conditions and develop appropriate advisories for the country.

Muriuki explained that the Meteorological Service provides the scientific weather forecasts, while specialists in sectors such as agriculture, health and water assess the likely consequences and develop sector-specific preparedness measures.

“Our role is primarily advisory. We provide the weather forecast, while different sectors assess what those conditions mean for them and advise on the appropriate response,” Muriuki said.

He said the national outlook will enable government agencies, communities and other stakeholders to understand the anticipated weather conditions and take early action to minimise potential risks.

However, Muriuki cautioned against automatically equating El Niño with heavy rainfall. He explained that El Niño is a climate phenomenon associated with abnormal warming of ocean waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, occurring periodically, generally every three to seven years.

According to Muriuki, global forecasting models and scientists are currently indicating a high probability of a strong El Niño event, with some forecasting centres putting the likelihood at more than 80 per cent.

He said the phenomenon is already influencing weather patterns, with the Kenya Meteorological Service expected to issue a more comprehensive national forecast on Wednesday.

The forthcoming outlook is expected to provide a sector-by-sector assessment and regional breakdown, highlighting areas likely to experience significant weather impacts and the measures that stakeholders should consider.

The forecast will be particularly important for sectors such as agriculture, water, health, transport and disaster management, allowing authorities and communities to strengthen preparedness ahead of potentially disruptive weather conditions.

Muriuki urged journalists and members of the public to follow the Wednesday briefing closely, saying the detailed outlook will provide critical information on what different parts of the country should expect.

The message from meteorological experts is clear: early information and preparedness will be crucial as Kenya watches the evolving El Niño threat.